How Close Is the Threat, and What Does a Board Owe Its Shareholders Now?

Post-quantum migration deadlines are now fixed by regulation — the EU Coordinated Implementation Roadmap, EO 14412 — but the pace of quantum hardware remains the variable every budget rests on. This keynote gives an independent read on where quantum computing actually stands, from the researcher who leads BCG's quantum program and has published more than 15 pieces on the field.

The session covers three things. First, the vendor and hardware-modality landscape: where the leading players stand across superconducting, trapped-ion, neutral-atom, photonic and annealing approaches, and how logical-qubit and error-correction milestones translate into credible timelines. Second, the impact of AI on the field — as an accelerant for error correction, algorithm design and system control, and as a driver of the compute economics that will decide which platforms win. Third, the risk picture: the current range of estimates for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, the harvest-now-decrypt-later exposure organizations already carry, and how boards and regulators should think about investment and migration timing under that uncertainty.

It closes with the question boards cannot defer: if there is even a small probability that RSA-2048 fails by 2030, what is the fiduciary obligation to act today, and how should investment and migration be sequenced under that uncertainty?

Attendees will leave with a clear-eyed view of quantum progress and what it means for the urgency and pace of their own post-quantum transition.